Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for October is likely to be “down nearly 80%” compared to the same month in 2019, i.e., pre-pandemic trading, says a Monday note from brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.
The institution also updated its overall 2021 GGR forecast, in the light of recent Covid-19 cases in Macau, saying it expected GGR for the 12 months to be “69% below 2019”, but up 51% compared to 2020.
For October GGR in particular, the result “is likely to be even worse” than an 80-percent contraction on 2019, “if the border control measures with Zhuhai/[mainland] China stay longer than expected,” added analysts Vitaly Umansky, Louis Li and Kelsey Zhu.
The brokerage added it was “also important for China to resume group visa issuance and allow group travel to Macau,” which it said had accounted for “50%” of mainland visitor volume in 2019.
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