With the May Day holiday fast approaching, surging oil prices are already reshaping travel patterns. China’s average domestic airfare (including taxes) has risen by nearly 14% year-on-year and is about 25% higher than in 2019.
In terms of scheduled flights, short-haul, high-frequency, and visa-friendly destinations continue to dominate outbound travel decisions for the holiday.
According to VariFlight data, among the top 20 countries and regions by scheduled flights for the 2026 May Day holiday, South Korea and Thailand rank first and second. In Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Singapore are maintaining steady growth, with Malaysia’s scheduled flights up 28.5% year-on-year.
“Overall outbound travel bookings have dropped by around 30% year-on-year, and South Asia has seen a sharp decline,” said the head of outbound travel at a travel agency.
Take Sri Lanka and Nepal, for examples. There used to be four flights per week, but now there are only four flights per month. “Travelers are worried they may not be able to get home after flying there. There are also fuel shortages, and flights are frequently cancelled.”
VariFlight data confirms this regional divergence: during the 2026 May Day holiday, the overall cancellation rate for international flights has surged from 3.6% last year to 7.4%, with Chinese carriers seeing cancellation rates as high as 10.7%. West Asia, including the Middle East, has the highest cancellation rate at 34.0%, followed by East Asia at 21.2%, Oceania at 14.4%, and Southeast Asia at 6.4%.
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a near doubling of global jet fuel prices in just over a month, some low-yield long-haul routes have become loss-making, forcing airlines to proactively cancel unprofitable flights.
