The decline in Chinese travel and spending to Japan is beginning to weigh on the Japanese market.
Against the backdrop of a travel caution advisory for Japan issued by the Chinese government, China’s three major airlines—Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines—along with several others including Shandong Airlines, Xiamen Airlines and Shanghai Airlines, on the 26 again issued notices on special ticket handling for Japan-related routes. For tickets that meet the applicable conditions, free refund and rebooking policies have been extended until October 24 this year.
More recently released data from Japanese industry associations have provided a clearer picture of the situation.
The Japan Department Stores Association (Chuo Ward, Tokyo) said on January 23 that in December 2025, both the number of Chinese customers and sales to Chinese shoppers at department stores nationwide fell by 40% year on year.
Data released the same day showed that total nationwide department store sales in December 2025 (on a same-store basis) declined 1.1% year on year to JPY 654.2 billion, marking the first drop in four months. The number of tax-free shoppers fell 16.7% to 500,000, while tax-free sales decreased 17.1% to JPY 51.9 billion(about USD 340 million). Sales to domestic Japanese customers rose 0.6%.
According to statistics from the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), the number of Chinese visitors to Japan in December 2025 totaled 330,400, down 45.3% year on year.
The Osaka Convention & Tourism Bureau said on January 26 that the number of mainland Chinese visitors to Osaka Prefecture in December 2025 fell 45% year on year to an estimated 176,000. As Chinese visitors—previously a key driver of inbound growth—are expected to continue declining, attracting travelers from Europe, the United States and other regions is becoming increasingly important.
Statistics from Kansai Airports show that the number of China-related flight movements at Kansai International Airport in December 2025 declined 40% year on year. Demand dropped particularly sharply on routes from regional Chinese cities, which typically carry a higher share of group travelers.
Given Kansai’s geographic proximity to China, mainland Chinese visitors have historically accounted for a higher share of foreign tourists than in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
During the 2010s, mainland Chinese group tours—often associated with large-scale shopping sprees—formed the core of inbound tourism to Osaka. However, following the COVID-19 pandemic, the recovery of mainland Chinese visitors has lagged, while inbound demand has become more diversified, with more travelers from South Korea, Southeast Asia, Europe and the United States.
According to the Japan Tourism Agency’s accommodation travel statistics, mainland Chinese travelers accounted for 25.3% of all foreign overnight stays in Osaka Prefecture in October 2025, down 16.2 percentage points from October 2019. While the share remains higher than Tokyo’s 14.8%, Osaka’s reliance on mainland Chinese visitors has clearly shifted.
