Over the next two weeks, all flights on 46 China–Japan routes will be canceled.
Statistics show the cancellations are concentrated on routes from cities across China to Osaka. Kansai International Airport previously had a relatively high volume of flights from China, with leisure travelers accounting for the majority, which helps explain the higher cancellation rate. In addition, some post-pandemic routes to Japan’s second- and third-tier cities are also being phased out.
More China–Japan routes are seeing frequency cuts or being pulled from sale. Based on Flight Master (DAST) schedule data, as of December 22, 2025, canceled flights from mainland China to Japan in January 2026 has reached 2,195, with a cancellation rate of 40.4%, meaning about 40% of China–Japan routes will be unavailable for booking in the new year.
As capacity to Japan shrinks, ticket prices on China–Japan routes are rising. A fare check today shows prices for travel from December through January have increased. Taking Shanghai–Osaka Kansai as an example, the lowest base fare (excluding taxes) is currently RMB 500（about USD 71), compared with RMB 100 (about USD 14) when checked on November 15.
Meanwhile, the sharp decline in Chinese tourists has led to a steep drop in accommodation prices in Japan. Japanese local media report that hotel prices in Kyoto have fallen significantly, with similar trends in Osaka, Nagoya, and Fukuoka, all regions with a high share of Chinese visitors.
So far this year, flights from China to Japan have consistently ranked first among outbound routes. But one week ago, South Korea surpassed Japan to take the top spot.
Capacity withdrawn from Japan is being redeployed to destinations like Southeast Asia.
Flight Master data show that in the most recent week—compared with the week when China issued a cautious travel advisory for Japan—the largest increase in flight volume was on China-Thailand routes, followed by Australia and Malaysia. The fastest growth rate was on China–Australia routes, while flights to New Zealand and Singapore also saw notable gains. These capacity moves align with shifts in passenger demand.
Qunar data show that Thailand has reclaimed the top spot as the most popular outbound destination for the winter break. From mid-January to the period before the Spring Festival, flight bookings to Thailand rose 21% year on year.
During the New Year holiday, outbound flight bookings to popular destinations increased by over 40%. The most popular destinations included South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, the United States, Australia, and Spain.
Among them, flights to Seoul surged 3.3 times year on year, the fastest-growing destination and the top New Year outbound choice among college students. Flights to Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi increased 3.2 times and 2.4 times, respectively, becoming popular options among working professionals aged 23–30.
In addition, following Russia’s announcement of visa-free travel for Chinese citizens, flight bookings to Russia ahead of the winter break increased by nearly 1.5 times.
