Bain & Company has released its latest air traffic forecast.
Below is the outlook as of the end of the second quarter of 2025:
Last year, annual air travel demand returned to pre-pandemic levels, with revenue passenger kilometers (RPK)—the number of paying passengers multiplied by the total distance traveled—reaching nearly 103% of 2019 volumes. Demand is expected to hit a new high in 2025 at nearly 108% of 2019 levels.
The pandemic’s dampening effect on air travel may make the 2020s the slowest-growing decade in the industry’s history.
While the 2030-2040 period may not match the pre-2020 pace of demand growth, the long-term outlook remains largely stable.
Supported by strong fundamentals in both emerging and mature markets, global RPK is projected to reach 14.8 trillion by 2040, equivalent to 178% of 2019 volumes.
Although macroeconomic forecasts point to some weakness—due to increasing tariff pressures and global trade uncertainty—these headwinds are largely offset by shifting sustainability assumptions. The anticipated easing of carbon cost pressures and delays in certain climate-related taxes have created more room for air travel demand growth, particularly in price-sensitive segments.
Regional trends remain dynamic. Bain expects Asia to continue driving global growth, with intra-regional passenger volumes forecast to rise 131% between 2019 and 2040. China’s strong post-pandemic momentum is set to continue, making it one of the fastest-growing markets; by 2040, China’s total air traffic volume is projected to more than double its 2019 level.
