Thailand’s Kasikorn Research Center released a report on the May 16, projecting that the country’s tourism industry will see its first decline in nearly three years in 2025.
Latest data shows that as of May 11, both the number of international tourists and overall tourism revenue have slightly dropped. This downward trend began in February and may continue through the end of the year.
A key factor behind the decline is the significant drop in Chinese tourists. In the first four months of this year, around 1.6486 million Chinese tourists visited Thailand—700,000 fewer than the same period last year, marking a nearly 30% decrease.
In April, China was no longer Thailand’s top source of tourists, with Malaysia taking the lead.
Kasikorn Research Center forecasts that Thailand will receive 34.5 million international tourists in 2025, down 2.8% year-on-year. Tourism revenue is estimated to fall 3% to 1.62 trillion baht (about USD 48.6 billion).
In contrast, Japan’s tourism continues to boom.
In the first quarter of 2025, over 10 million foreign tourists visited Japan, setting a new quarterly record. Among them were 2.3649 million visitors from mainland China—an 80% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
Visitor spending also remained strong, with the average per capita expenditure of inbound tourists in Japan reaching 222,000 yen (about USD 1,522).
While both Thailand and Japan carry certain travel risks, Chinese tourists appear increasingly drawn to Japan. Why?
The key factor may be cost-effectiveness. According to an industry observer, Thailand is gradually losing its edge in terms of value for money.
Starting with airfares: Thailand’s flight recovery rate remains lower than Japan’s, making flights to Japan more competitively priced.
Data from Flight Master shows that in Week 20 of 2025, Japan operated 1,285 flights with a recovery rate of 106.4%, while Thailand had only 604 flights, with a 50% recovery rate.
As an industry analyst put it, "Low passenger load factors lead to flight cuts; fewer flights push up airfares—creating a vicious cycle.”Flight data from January to April 2025 confirms that this cycle has already materialized for routes from China to Thailand.
Hotel costs are another factor. Thai accommodation have lost its pricing appeal. A survey by Kasikorn Research Center found that hotel prices in Thailand rose by 34% in 2024 compared to 2019—outpacing the average increase of 28%.
As of early 2025, prices haven’t seen a notable drop, and complaints about high Thai hotel rates continue to surface on social media.
Southeast Asia remains the primary choice for Chinese outbound travelers. But with destinations like Vietnam and Malaysia gaining more popularity, Thailand now faces tougher competition than ever.
