China’s aviation industry displayed a striking divergence over the past year - while passenger aviation struggled with financial losses, the air cargo sector thrived.
Passenger traffic hits record high, but profits remain elusive.
In 2024, China’s passenger transport volume reached 730 million trips, a record high, representing a 17.9% year-on-year increase and an 10.6% rise from 2019.
However, the passenger market remains "crowded but unprofitable."
According to the China Air Transport Association, the average economy class fare dropped by more than 10% year-on-year, and annual yield per passenger kilometer decreased by 12.5%.
Key challenges:
* High fuel prices driving up operational costs.
* Supply-demand imbalance in the market.
* Slow recovery of international routes.
* Intensifying market competition.
While passenger business faces headwinds, air cargo is booming.
According to the China Air Transport Association, air cargo demand surged in 2024, with both volume and pricing rising in international freight. The industry transported 8.982 million tons of cargo and mail, a record high, marking a 22.1% year-on-year increase and a 19.3% rise from 2019.
China’s major air cargo carriers project substantial profit growth:
* China Eastern Air Logistics forecasts a net profit of RMB 2.5-2.9 billion (USD 343-398 million), a 0.48%-16.56% year-on-year increase.
* Air China Cargo expects RMB 1.8-1.99 billion (USD 247-273 million), a staggering 56%-73% surge.
However, the outlook for air cargo is clouded by rising trade tensions.
With U.S. President Trump increasing tariffs and tightening logistics restrictions on international trade partners, the air cargo industry faces significant challenges ahead.
