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Oxford Economics: Wuhan coronavirus seen to cut tourism revenues in Asia

01/27/2020| 4:59:41 PM|

While the initial hit to the economy can be severe, growth tends to bounce back quickly after the virus is contained.

The influx of Chinese tourists to the Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries would take a hit from the outbreak of Wuhan coronavirus, but most economies in the region were expected to be ready in offsetting any potential economic impact of the illness, UK-based Oxford Economics said Sunday.

“The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak could potentially be a high-impact but short-lived event, similar to the SARS experience in 2003. As such, we think that the current virus outbreak poses a downside risk to our China growth forecast, particularly in the first quarter and possibly the second quarter should the outbreak be prolonged. But beyond that the impact should begin to fade,” Oxford Economics senior economist Tommy Wu and head of India and Southeast Asia economics Priyanka Kishore said in a Jan. 26 research briefing titled “Wuhan virus raises downside growth risks in short-term.”

Oxford Economics explained that while China’s gross domestic product (GDP) may be impacted especially on the consumption side (such as retail and tourism), and to a lesser extent on investments and industries, the economic effect would be “less severe compared to the SARS episode, at least for now.”

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TAGS: Philippines | Southeast Asia | coronavirus
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