China will need over 7,400 new passenger aircraft and freighters from 2018 to 2037, with a total market value of USD 1,060 billion, according to Airbus’ latest China Market Forecast. It represents more than 19% of the world total demand for over 37,400 new aircraft in the next 20 years.
“Airbus’ share of the China mainland in-service fleet has steadily increased and now exceeds incumbent and competing aircraft types and keeps growing thanks to our cost-effective new generation products. In parallel the total value of our industrial cooperation with Chinese aviation industry is growing to USD 1 billion by 2020,” said Christian Scherer, Airbus Chief Commercial Officer.
By 2037, the propensity for the Chinese population to fly will more than triple from 0.4 trips per capita today to 1.4. Private consumption from a growing Middle Class (550 million people today to 1.15 billion by 2037) is expected to be the main driver of future air traffic growth. Today this private consumption accounts for 37% to the Chinese economy, a share that should rise to 43% by 2037.
With these strong growth drivers China will become the lead country for passenger air traffic, for both domestic and international markets as passenger traffic for routes connecting China are forecast to grow well above the world average, at 6.3% over the next 20 years. Domestic China traffic has grown fourfold over the last 10 years with double-digit growth rates and is expected to become the largest traffic flow in the next ten years. International traffic from/to China has almost doubled over the last 10 years.
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