Europe projects a 7%-25% impact on Chinese tourist arrivals
02/17/2020|11:35:00 PM|ETC

Europe enjoyed a healthy 4% increase in international tourist arrivals in 2019 compared to 2018 (+6%), according to the European Travel Commission’s (ETC) latest quarterly ‘European Tourism Trends and Prospects’ report.

The US remains the largest long-haul source market of tourist arrivals to European destinations. US travelers encouraged by a supportive economic environment, while unforeseen events are expected to hamper Chinese outbound travel.

With SARS impacts as a guide, Europe anticipates the continent will see Chinese arrivals in the range of 7% (most likely case) and 25% (downside case) lower in 2020 compared to the pre-crisis (counterfactual) forecast. In absolute terms these impacts equate to between 1 million (most likely case) and 3.7 million (downside case) fewer Chinese arrivals in Europe in 2020 than would’ve been the case under the counterfactual forecast.

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