Loads and yields will continue to suffer, Asia looking better: CAPA
Monday, September 15, 2008: With a slight oversupply of air traffic capacity in the world at the moment, next year’s load factors and yields will struggle to grow, except in Asia, say analysts.
Aviation in the Asia-Pacific and Africa are the only two regions expected to do better in 2009 than 2008, says the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA).
“Worldwide domestic/international traffic (passenger and cargo combined) is expected to grow just 2.9% in 2009 (down from a previous forecast of 4.5%) on the back of 2.2% growth in capacity,” claims CAPA.
“Amid the gloomy international airline industry financial outlook released this month by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) came some optimism that traffic growth in the Asia Pacific region should recover somewhat next year.”
China and India is expected to see an overall growth in traffic of around 3.3% for 2008, and this will rise to 3.9% in 2009.
CAPA isn’t too positive on the Middle East carriers either, saying, “Meanwhile, the days of double-digit passenger and capacity growth are expected to come to an end for Middle East carriers in 2009.
“Capacity expansion is expected to ease from 10.9% in 2008 to 9.3% next year, despite deliveries of up to five widebody aircraft per month to regional leaders, Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways, collectively.”